'Real-Time' Data Quickly (in days or weeks, not months) Gauge
An Event's Effect on the Economy

The Commerce Department won't release an estimate of gross domestic product for the just-ended third quarter -- which will include August and September, the months most affected by the hurricanes -- until Oct. 28.  This three-week delay is typical for a monthly or quarterly report.  (The the Department of Labor's Employment Situation report, in contrast, is often released just a few days after the close of the period being reported. )

Of course, weekly indicators are much more volatile than monthly readings. Nevertheless, economists scrambling for quick ways to figure out where the economy is headed often glance at real-time indicators. Here are some that economists look at:

Indicator: Initial Jobless Claims
Source: Department of Labor
Web site: www.dol.gov

What does it tell us? It tracks new claims for unemployment insurance and offers a snapshot of labor-market conditions by telling us whether more or less people are filing for unemployment, compared with preceding weeks. Economist Stephen Gallagher says one of his favorite indicators, initial jobless claims, may have already offered a key clue about the economy in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Labor Department reported last week that new claims for unemployment insurance fell to a seasonally adjusted 356,000 for the week ended Sept. 24, which Mr. Gallagher considers a closer-to-normal range. The drop gives "some indication that the worst may be over," says Mr. Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at SG CIB, the corporate and investment-banking arm of France's Société Générale SA. While the job market still faces challenges, the claims reduction is one of several hints suggesting that the economy may have avoided a "sustained downturn," Mr. Gallagher says.

Indicator: Mortgage Applications
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Web site: www.mbaa.org

What does it tell us? The MBA's Purchase Index tracks the level of mortgage applications for home purchases. It tells us how the residential real-estate market is faring by gauging lending activity. The purchase index for the week ended Sept. 30 showed a seasonally adjusted decline of 1.9% to 473.8, compared with the week before. That marked the third straight weekly fall for the index, a possible sign of gradual cooling in the housing market. Still, purchase-application volumes are up 3% from the same time last year, says Michael Fratantoni, the association's senior director of single-family research and economics. Moreover, mortgage activity for home purchases in 2005 is "headed for another record year," he says.

Indicator: Hotel Bookings
Source: Smith Travel Research
Web site: www.smithtravelresearch.com

What does it tell us? This indicator tracks hotel-occupancy levels and room rates and tells us how business and leisure travel are faring. In the week following Katrina, the hotel industry had a small drop, as occupancy rates fell below their late August reading of 66% and an average daily rate of $90.28, according to Smith Travel Research. But the group's weekly performance indicators show that the hotel industry bounced back nicely by mid-September. For the week ended Sept. 17, hotel-occupancy rates were at 70.2% and average daily rates reached $93.49. "I don't think travel outside of the [Gulf] region has been affected much," says Bobby Bowers, a Smith Travel spokesman.

Indicator: Railroad Traffic Report
Source: Association of American Railroads
Web site: www.aar.org

What does it tell us? It tracks railroad-freight transportation volumes, which show whether companies are shipping more or less goods, compared with a year earlier. The association's traffic report indicates that rail-transportation volumes were higher each week in September, compared with corresponding weeks last year. "It's quite an amazing story," says Craig Rockey, the association's vice president for policy and economics. "As devastating as the hurricane was to the Gulf area, the overall economy that we serve is still very vibrant."

Indicator: Weekend Movie-Ticket Sales
Source: Exhibitor Relations Co.
Web site: www.ercboxoffice.com

What does it tell us? By tracking weekend movie-ticket sales, we can see how Americans are spending their discretionary income on one form of entertainment. With high gas prices, Americans last month streamed into movie theaters. In September, ticket sales rose 13%, compared with the same month last year, according to Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., a box-office tracking service based in Encino, Calif. "People are in the mood for some escapism," he says.

Write to Rafael Gerena-Morales at rafael.gerena@wsj.com